Labour on course? 2023 Local Elections Analysis

The dust on a lively set of local elections has now settled, and some key headline figures are to be taken away:

A worse than expected night for the Conservatives with over 1,000 lost seats and 48 councils lost (with a series more going to no overall control). Good progress for Labour, particularly in winning back a great volume of support in the Red Wall, with over 500 seats gained and 22 councils won. Very positive showings for the Lib Dems and Greens are also a key take away, with 407 and 241 seat gains respectively, with the Greens gaining majority control of their first council (and being the largest party in 8 others) and the Lib Dems gaining 12 councils themselves.

- figure 1, a map showing the results of the Local Elections with the party in control of each district. In this case, black means no party has an overall majority. (https://electionmaps.uk/le2023)

- figure 2, the overall results of the 2023 local elections. The Greens have doubled the number of seats they hold versus last time out, with strong gains for both Labour and the Lib Dems. (https://electionmaps.uk/le2023)

What are we, therefore, to read into these results? A cautionary word would be to say that while these Local Elections are a great indicator of the national picture and mood, their intrinsically ‘Local’ nature (in some ways meaning they are, wrongly or rightly, regarded as less important than a General Election) mean that these results ought to be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly for the minor parties.

Indeed, these results show tremendous support for the Lib Dems and Greens, with the Lib Dems having an estimated national vote share of 20% and the Greens presumably in the low double digits (It is worth noting that the Greens don’t have their vote share projected by major outlets but the low double digit figure seems reasonably agreed upon). Lest we also forget that Independents and Residents Associations also tend to have strong showings at Local Elections, with them maintaining or even gaining councils in this most recent set of elections.

In addition to these results from the smaller parties, a key headline figure was Labour’s vote share being at 35% with the Tories on 26%: a nine point lead and a far cry from the near 20 point leads Labour has been enjoying in recent opinion polls. As such, were these results to be replicated on the scale of a General Election, most psephologists conclude that Labour would be short of a majority.

This headline, in some circles, has almost detracted from just how catastrophic a night this was for the Tories, with Conservatives and some on the Corybnite left claiming this a Labour failure rather than a Tory disaster.

It’s funny how this spin works, especially when it can so easily be disproved. It was, for example, particularly disappointing to see Sky News Political Editor, Beth Rigby, parrot this falsehood to Keir Starmer, repeatedly putting it to him that Labour are not on course for a majority. The simple fact is this: Local Election results, while a good indicator, do not reflect what would happen in a General Election.

For a start, it is well worth noting which seats were up for election this time round; namely, those last up in the 2019 local elections. These 2019 elections were held in a very unusual political context, with Brexit dominating all. At this time, the national opinion polls showed a four horse race for Westminster between: Labour, The Tories, The Lib Dems, and The Brexit Party. As such, when all the votes were tallied and counted, we saw the Tories lose a staggering 1300 seats, with Labour losing under 100 and both polling at a meager 25% each.

With this in mind, it is naturally a difficult ask for opposition parties to take even more seats from an electoral map already diminished of 1300 Tories. However, they did, and the Tories, a far cry from recovering from 2019, have now lost a total of over 2300 seats across these 2 elections. Whatever way you cut it, that is simply catastrophic. And who was the main beneficiary of this collapse? Labour, up 11 points in the polls versus their 2019 result across those same seats.

Next, and perhaps most obviously, forecasting a General Election result from the estimated vote share of parties at a set of Local Elections is nearly utterly meaningless and totally misleading. For example, almost year on year, the Liberal Democrats will more than double their Westminster opinion polling percentage at Local Elections, only to collapse back into mediocrity at the next General Election. Likewise, the Greens have recently been doing extremely well in Local Elections, with brilliant local strategies in largely tory areas aimed at protecting Green spaces. However, again, their best ever result at a General Elections was around 5% of the popular vote and only one seat.

To consequently suggest that, in a General Election, the Lib Dems, Greens, and Independents will poll anything like they do in Local Elections is at best wishful thinking and frankly deceptive journalism from those who really ought to know better (although perhaps I’m being overly generous on the latter point, especially when Piers Morgan is miraculously classed as a journalist).

Does this mean a Labour majority is guaranteed? Of course not. Neil Kinnock will be the first to tell you that complacency can be a real kick in the teeth for a party in opposition. However, when Keir Starmer says ‘Labour is on course for a Majority’, he’s not wrong.

This being said, and as a card carrying Labour member myself, my optimism would still only be cautious. I said earlier that these Local Elections are a good indicator of the national mood, and Labour would do well to remember this in the context of the loses that they did make going over to progressive parties, largely the Greens.

The Labour shift towards the center comes with risks, prerogative among them, and being seen, is the loss of enthusiasm and anger many former Labour supporters and members have in the post Corbyn-era.

Jeremy Corbyn may not have been an election winner, but my god he garnered so much enthusiasm from so many people. A 40% vote share in 2017 is not to sniffed at, however polarizing that election may have been.

The fact is that I, too, was swept up in, and to ironically in this context borrow a phrase from Tony Blair, a tide of optimism when Corbyn was Labour leader. I still support many of his key policies; a real living wage, a green industrial revolution, and nationalisation of key public utilities to name but a few.

To this end, I can fully understand why many on the Left feel abandoned by Keir Starmer and them I say this, something I have also said on Twitter:

For 13 years, the Conservatives have decimated the UK. Soaring prices in every area, a crumbling NHS, crumbling public infrastructure, millions requiring food banks to survive, stagnant wages, tax handouts to the richest while so many suffer, and the list goes on and on and on. This means I want to see a Labour government. In 2017, I voted for a Corbyn lead Labour government. In 2019, I did the same. So how, some may ask, can I support Starmer? The answer is very simple for me.

Keir Starmer is not the leader of the Labour Party I want. I don't think he's radical enough and he’s frankly dishonest at times. However, if the research, reports, and articles I've read and written have taught me one thing it's that we cannot afford another Tory government.

I will happily grant that Starmer does not go far enough for my liking in so many capacities. However, so many millions of people simply cannot afford another Tory government. People need change now, even if it’s won’t go as far as I would like.

My Socialism is based around the idea of helping the many that need it. I could not, in good mind, sacrifice a Labour government that is not ideologically pure enough for 5 more years of Tory rule. Part of being a good Socialist is fighting for those who need it the most.

A Labour government would help so many millions of people, start repairing the damage to the NHS and public services, and give so many people the lift they need to live. I want to fight to make that happen. I also want Labour to commit further, and I'll fight for that too.

I therefore hope this gives people an idea of my political philosophy and what I fight for. I am no sectarian; I want to see people get the help they need now rather than stay in opposition while remaining ideologically pure. We will score no runs from the pavilion.

To close, then, lessons are to be learned in success and Local Elections provide a perfect chance for reflection of this kind. The Conservatives are only going one place: into opposition. But they will not do so voluntarily or without a great shove. The fight has just begun.

Instagram: down_in_a_rabbit_hole

Twitter: @DIARabbitHole