The By-Elections and Labour's Problem

Before delving into the meat and drink of a very important discussion around the infrastructure and general state of the NHS (an article that will be coming very soon), there are a few things I would like to address.

First, the 3 by-elections held last week in Selby, Somerton, and Uxbridge. As a very brief analysis, it is clear that the Conservatives are not merely on the ropes, they’re not even in the ring. The largest swing to Labour in a by-election in the parties history has shown the Tories, Media, and the public, that Labour is now in a position to win in towns and rural areas and, indeed, in seats that aren’t even needed for a Labour Majority.

The national mood was reflected in Selby: a mood of a wanting for something new, anything new! It was the reflection of a feeling that the Conservatives simply do not care about the issues of working people: they have done nothing on house building (as was found in my last article) and are leaving so many hard working families to fend for themselves in the aftermath of the Truss kamikaze budget. They have decimated the NHS (as will be discussed in my next article) and are allowing the Cost of Living crisis to propagate, leaving almost everyone (outside of the very wealthy) markedly poorer. The result in Selby, and the crushing Liberal Democrat win in Somerton, should really come as little surprise with regard to the aforementioned points, even with the enormous swings needed and huge majorities that were needed to be overcome.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a curious case. Boris Johnson’s former seat has been on Labours hitlist for quite some time and was the smallest majority for them to overcome, standing at only around 9,000. While Labour did come close, the Tories ultimately clung on to the seat. To many, this came as something of a shock, but should it have?

Many have cited the controversial ULEZ policy as the reason for Labours defeat here. Indeed, it is true that the Tories were able to galvanise much of their support from their own anti-ULEZ stance (despite the fact that the newly elected Conservative MP will have absolutely zero power to do anything about it).

It may surprise many to actually find that the ULEZ policy was initially the brain child and first implemented under, wait for it, Boris Johnson.

In this, we can see that a great success of the Conservatives in Uxbridge was that of being able to frame the argument around their own narrative, something Labour had the ability to combat but did not. This was extremely disappointing to see.

Even more disappointing, Keir Starmer reacted to the by-election defeat by criticising Sadiq Khan for the messaging around ULEZ: a policy that would actually so greatly benefit London and its environment, in spite of remaining issues that need to ironed out.

This, to me, reflects an abdication of responsibility in his messaging and approach to the by-election. Uxbridge wasn’t simply lost due to ULEZ (a large factor as it may be), it was also lost in the lack lustre policy enticement offered to voters.

Keir Starmer stating that Labour in government would keep the 2 child benefit cap was infuriating and a big let down for many voters who are still wondering what excitement a Labour government will bring. My personal view is still one of that Labour in government will be a transformative force for good and I believe their manifesto, while not as lavishly loaded with promises as in 2017 or 2019, will be one that will secure a helping hand to the millions who have been so callously ignored by 13 years of Tory rule.

I also appreciate Labours position on fiscal responsibility in the context of the economic climate that the Conservatives have plunged us into and this the need for economic responsibility if Labour win the General Election (All too often Labour have been battered for their perceived lack of economic credibility). However, policies such as keeping the 2 child benefits cap are not grounded in fiscal responsibility. Rather, it seems a rather limp attempt to try and convert remaining Conservative voters and those with a more socially conservative and so called ‘moderate’ outlook.

However, Labour would do well to bear in mind the hyper-partisan nature of the current political climate. Namely, with Labour 20 points ahead in the polls, those voters still saying they will vote Conservative aren’t going to change their mind, certainly if they’re choosing to stick with the party after the last few years of chaos.

To this end, with the publics dismay at the utter disaster of Conservative rule, there is an opportunity for Labour to be more bold and progressive, even within the confines of their own fiscal rules. An opportunity to get people excited about the prospect of a Labour government rather than just excited to get rid of the Conservatives.

I am in no doubt as to the good a Labour government can and will achieve, but any complacency or further swerves to Right will only serve to further alienate an increasingly discouraged base. The risk here is that votes will be lost to the NIMBY loving Greens or the fake progressives in the Liberal Democrats. I hope that doesn’t happen.

I hope we see a Labour government after the next election; the good they will achieve will be fantastic and vital to so many who cannot wait any longer and there are some absolutely brilliant and compassionate people in the party. I only hope they appreciate the concerns of their base and galvanise the public to actively support and get excited by a Labour government.